COVID-19 Pandemic Affects Carbon Emissions in China

The coronavirus, which was first detected in China, is now spreading worldwide, causing a global medical emergency and fear as hundreds of thousands are infected, and this deadly virus kills thousands.

Everything is impacted—business, travel, the economy, trade, and jobs. Important international events, such as the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, Japan, are at risk of cancellation, as people are advised to stay at home, avoid social interactions if possible, and self-quarantine to prevent the further spread of the virus.

If there is one positive outcome of slowing down human activities and business due to coronavirus, it is the dip in carbon emissions in China. However, the reason behind this news is not something to celebrate.

The New York Times reported that carbon emissions in China dropped 25% within three weeks of the coronavirus outbreak in the country, as Factories and refineries shut down and flights ground to a halt.

The drop recorded in February 2020 is 25% lower than the previous year’s emissions in the same period, according to Lauri Myllyvirta of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.  It says that the amounts from the 3-week decline in emissions in China are equivalent to New York state’s yearly emissions of about 150 million metric tons of CO2 (Plumer et al., 2020).

However, Li Shuo of Greenpeace Asia warns that China’s emissions will quickly rebound when the outbreak has been contained.  Mr Li says that in the past, China tended to compensate for lost output due to temporary shutdowns, which he calls “retaliatory pollution”.  He adds that this outbreak could even hinder China’s efforts to its green economy and climate change as it will focus on claiming back losses and rebuilding its economy as the virus as soon as the virus is controlled (Plumer et al., 2020).

CarbonBrief has also released a study showing a decline in China’s energy consumption and industrial reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by up to a quarter due to the coronavirus.

A decline in their emissions is due to the slowing down of operations and production in their fossil-fuel-intensive industries: power plants (36%), steel production (15%), coal throughput (29%), coking operations (23%), oil refineries (34%), and even their aeroplane flights due to cancellations. The study says that this drop in emissions from the above activities has been their lowest two-week average in several years (Myllyvirta, 2020).

Myllyvirta (2020) reports:

• Satellite images of the country comparing the Chinese New Year holidays of 2019 and this year 2020 have shown a significant reduction of NO2, an air pollutant associated with fossil-fuel burning in the atmosphere. Images show a significant clearing this year compared to last year of the same period.
• However, these data might be short-lived until the coronavirus has at least been contained. China has experienced shutdowns in the past, and this one is not uncommon. China has a ‘very substantial overcapacity in all of the major CO2 emitting industries,’ which means that it can catch up in no time with what emissions it has lost due to the outbreak as long as there is demand, the study says.
• The government’s current focus is on restoring the economy while keeping a tight rein on the virus’s spread. The longer the virus spreads and the more people are infected, the more damaging it will be for the economy, as residents will suffer a loss of wages and income.  

From the coronavirus outbreak, it becomes clear that China’s economy is still based heavily on fossil-fuel-intensive industries, and these industries will bounce back again, recouping their losses as soon as the virus is contained, which means more fossil-fuel emissions spewed back into the atmosphere.

Hopefully, China’s efforts to recover its losses will not deter it from its climate change adaptation efforts and investments towards a green economy, which the country has already started doing.

While human activities diminish due to the COVID-19 pandemic impacting the environment, resulting in some bits of pollution-free and smog-free air, it is hoped that climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts will be intentional and progressive.

Read the CarbonBrief study by clicking on the button below: