Ben-Gurion Uni Study Shows More Factors Affect GHG Emissions

Innovations, technological advancements, and infrastructural improvements are crucial in addressing the challenges of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the sustainable management of natural resources. Governments and societies consider them critical solutions to mitigate climate change.

However, a new model from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev environmental researchers challenges these assumptions and shows that technological innovations and infrastructural changes alone are insufficient to reduce GHG emissions, and other factors must be considered.

Their findings are published in a paper, “Effects of demographic and technological trends on the mitigation of Israel’s environmental footprint,” published in Nature in October 2024.

The paper notes that the global population is projected to grow by 20% by 2050, increasing consumption. Any GHG reductions gained from innovations and infrastructural changes will be offset by increased consumption patterns and failure to meet the 2050 targets.

The study focused on Israel as a case study due to its steady demographic growth. However, the models can be applied to all countries.

In 2015, Israel’s annual population growth rate was 2.0%, more than three times the OECD average of approximately 0.6%. Additionally, with an average of three children per woman, Israel has the highest fertility rate in the OECD by a significant margin, far exceeding the OECD average of 1.7 (Weintraub et al. 2018).

With Israel’s economic growth also comes a rise in living standards. Higher incomes and urban lifestyles mean increased consumption, particularly of transportation, energy, and food.

According to Statista, Israel’s household disposable income has experienced consistent growth over the years and is expected to rise even further. This increase in disposable income has led to a corresponding rise in household spending across various essential and leisure categories. Citizens are investing more in food, housing, healthcare, communication technology, transportation, and recreational activities, reflecting a trend toward improved quality of life and well-being.

The model looked at changing consumption patterns in Israel and innovations that can reduce GHGs from various sectors, such as electricity, food production, water, and construction. 

Israel’s considerable investments in biotechnology and infrastructure will reduce GHG emissions per individual by 65%. However, because of population growth, the country will only decrease its carbon emissions by 33%, while emissions from water and land use will surge.

“Despite significant achievements in technology and infrastructure, the expected population growth and the increase in personal consumption may neutralize the reduction in emissions,” explained Prof. Riemer. “Our model shows that achieving 100% electricity generation from renewable sources is essential, but additional categories such as food production must also be addressed immediately.”

The analysis reveals that Israel’s population growth and rising consumption levels will likely intensify the nation’s dependence on food imports from abroad. This trend highlights the need for innovative agricultural solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while strengthening national food security.

Historically, Israel has been a leader in developing advanced agricultural technologies, such as drip irrigation and greenhouse farming. Leveraging this expertise will be essential in addressing the challenges posed by increasing demand and ensuring a sustainable food supply for the future.

Read the study: Effects of demographic and technological trends on the mitigation of Israel’s environmental footprint