Benefits of a More Sustainable Heating for Europe and Central Asia

Central Asia’s winter temperatures can drop to -40 degrees Celsius for weeks. As people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan prepare to brace for the coldest season of the year, they know from experience that power outages and interruptions in district heating could disrupt their heating systems. 

Heating in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) highly depends on fossil fuels. Ageing and energy-inefficient building stocks and heating infrastructures make heating unaffordable, resulting in high emissions and air pollution in the regions/contributing to high emissions and air pollution.

The World Bank 2023 report, “Europe and Central Asia Toward a Framework for the Sustainable Heating Transition”, presents the results of research and analysis on the status and trends of space heating conducted in 23 countries across Europe and Central Asia (ECA) in 2022-23.

The report shows that addressing the problem of unsustainable heating is an urgent matter for the governments in the region, which calls for a shift to sustainable, affordable, efficient, and clean heating systems. Doing so can bring economic – fuel and cost savings, and environmental benefits –cleaner air, and help achieve its net zero emissions goals by 2050.

Heat comprises about 24% of ECA regional energy demand and is responsible for about 22% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Coal and natural gas are the primary heat sources for these countries. About 30% of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region’s population is served by district heating (DH), which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, about 97%.

The ageing and energy-inefficient building stock, the unregulated firewood burned in inefficient and polluting boilers or stoves, and the high dependence on fossil fuels, particularly coal and natural gas, make heating less affordable and worsen air pollution and carbon emissions.

Energy for heating the space has grown to almost a quarter of the region’s total energy demand. The residential sector accounts for 72% of this consumption; the rest goes to commercial and public buildings.

Air pollution caused by using fossil fuels to heat spaces causes 302,000 yearly deaths and incurs a welfare cost of 7% of the region’s GDP annually. Carbon emissions from heating homes and buildings also account for 22% of the total regional emissions, of which 75% come from the residential sector.

The governments in the region urgently need to address the problem of unsustainable heating. Shifting to sustainable, affordable, efficient, and clean heating systems can bring economic and environmental benefits to the area and help it achieve its net zero emissions goals.

The cost of transition to sustainable heating in Europe and Central Asia

According to the report, the cost of the sustainable heating transition by 2050 will be between US$2 and 2.5 trillion and will require substantial subsidies.

The district heating utilities, heating customers, and building owners will also shoulder a huge portion of the investment cost, but government response in the form of policies, subsidies, and other support will also be critical to enabling the transition.

The transformation of the heating sector requires a three-pronged strategy: reducing demand through energy efficiency, bolstering and decarbonising the district heating (DH) sector and promoting sustainable individual heating systems (where district heating is not viable).

Framework for sustainable heating:

A transition to sustainable heating for Europe and Central Asia could be critical to tackling the region’s unsustainable heating. A successful shift could mean affordable and efficient heating, lower GHG emissions, improved air quality, and higher levels of comfort for households.