Climate Change Threatens Staples and Crop Diversity Near the Equator

Research indicates that this trend significantly threatens global food security as global temperatures continue to rise.

It is already impacting the yields of major food crops and staples. A recent study indicates that climate change is altering agricultural regions and reducing the diversity of crops globally.

The study, titled “Climate Change Threatens Crop Diversity at Low Latitudes,” conducted by researchers at Aalto University in Finland and published in the journal Nature Food in March 2025, examined how climate change could alter the suitability of growing 30 major crops under four different scenarios of global warming, ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C.

Previous research shows that the best climate conditions for many crops are moving from warmer regions closer to the equator to cooler regions at higher latitudes. However, most studies focus on specific areas or a small number of crops, which makes it hard to compare the impact on different crops or assess crop diversity across regions.

Global studies on how climate change affects crop diversity have mostly looked at environmental impacts rather than how these changes could affect the ability to adapt to climate change in food production. As a result, there is no clear, comprehensive global picture of how shifting climate conditions will affect current crop production and the diversity of crops in the future.

To fill the knowledge gaps, the authors examined how climate change will affect land suitability for growing 30 major food crops worldwide. They measured how the potential diversity of crops might change under different levels of global warming, from 1.5°C to 4°C.

The authors used the Safe Climatic Space (SCS) approach to identify the climate conditions required for each crop. This method involves mapping the current climate conditions in the primary regions where each crop is grown, focusing on factors such as annual rainfall, temperature, and dryness.

They analyse the climate in these key production areas, starting with individual crops and extending to all global croplands. This allows researchers to predict how climate suitability for agriculture will change worldwide, helping to identify regions that are becoming suitable or less suitable for crop cultivation. This knowledge will help ensure food resilience in the face of climate change.

The study finds that crops growing at lower latitudes, or closer to the equator, will be the most severely affected as those areas become hotter and drier. In warmer regions near the equator, 10% to 31% of current crop production would become unsuitable for the climate with just a 2°C increase in global temperatures.

This percentage would rise from 20% to 48% if global temperatures were to increase by 3°C. Additionally, the variety of crops that can be grown would decline by 52% of global cropland with a 2°C rise and by 56% of cropland with a 3°C rise. Conversely, crop diversity could increase in cooler regions farther from the equator, offering opportunities for adaptation to climate change.

The study‘s infographic illustrates the net percentage change in global cropland area that maintains a safe climatic space (SCS) for the 30 crops studied under four global warming scenarios: 1.5°C (brown), 2°C (light red), 3°C (orange), and 4°C (yellow), compared to the current climate (1990-2020). The crops are categorised into five groups: cereals, fruits and vegetables, oil crops, pulses, and starchy roots.

Climate adaptation opportunities

The authors emphasise the global food system’s capacity to adapt to climate change, noting that adaptation measures will vary significantly depending on the region. They reveal a global pattern in which crop diversity is expected to increase, particularly in mid- to high-latitude regions, especially in North America.

In contrast, crop diversity is projected to decline sharply in equatorial regions and sub-Saharan Africa, which has the lowest adaptive capacity worldwide. This situation presents significant opportunities for climate adaptation.

In cooler regions, selecting crops that can withstand climate change can enhance crop production resilience. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, the study indicates that nearly 40% of cropland is expected to move beyond the Safe Climatic Space (SCS) for all 30 major food crop types analysed.

The recent shift and the rapid population growth expected in the 21st century could significantly affect local food security. The authors suggest that small changes to farming practices will likely not be enough to counter the adverse effects on crop production in these areas.

Therefore, they stress the importance of supporting food supply in these regions by strengthening national and international climate policies, including creating trade agreements and funding innovative climate adaptation solutions for low-income countries.

Read the study by clicking the link in the “Source” section below.