Global Index Reveals Nations Vulnerable to Climate Finance Gaps

Climate change poses a profound threat to human health, livelihoods, and the natural environment.

It disrupts both physical and social systems, with the poorest nations bearing the most significant burden due to limited funding and capacity to adapt.

These countries urgently need international financial support to strengthen their climate resilience and safeguard their populations.

The growing cost of inaction

According to the United Nations (UN), around 3.6 billion people – nearly half the global population – are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including droughts, floods, heat stress, storms, and food insecurity. This figure is projected to rise as global temperatures continue to climb.

The UN warns that early investments in climate adaptation—such as resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and sustainable agriculture—yield far higher returns than delayed responses.

Every dollar invested in resilience could generate up to a fourfold return through avoided economic losses, improved public health, and broader social and environmental benefits.

In contrast, delaying action could prove devastating. The World Economic Forum (WEF) estimates that by 2050, extreme weather events like floods and heatwaves could cause 14.5 million deaths and up to US$12.5 trillion in global economic losses.

Despite this looming crisis, adaptation funding remains critically low. The UN estimates that developing countries will need US$387 billion annually by 2030 to adapt to climate change. Yet in 2022, adaptation finance reached only US$32.4 billion, highlighting an alarming funding gap that threatens global stability.

Mapping climate vulnerability: The CliF index

To address this imbalance, researchers from the Columbia Climate School, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, have developed a new analytical tool: the Climate Finance (CliF) Vulnerability Index and its accompanying Interactive Dashboard.

The CliF Index ranks 188 countries based on their vulnerability to both natural and human-induced hazards, as well as their access to financing for prevention, recovery, and rebuilding. It identifies 65 countries within the ‘Red Zone’, representing over two billion people facing the highest levels of climate and financial risk.

Users can explore the dashboard under four scenarios—two future timelines (2050 and 2080) and two climate trajectories (optimistic and pessimistic). Alarmingly, 47 countries appear in the Red Zone across all four scenarios, underlining the systemic nature of the crisis.

The regional breakdown reveals stark disparities:

• Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 44 of the 65 Red Zone countries, home to nearly 1.2 billion people. The most climate-vulnerable nations include Angola, Burundi, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zambia.
• In the Asia-Pacific, six countries—Bangladesh, Kiribati, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—represent over 520 million vulnerable people.
• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) contribute eight Red Zone nations, including Belize, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela, encompassing more than 100 million people.
• Two European nations—Ukraine and Cyprus—also fall within the Red Zone.

Who can help? The role of wealthier nations

The CliF Index also highlights the 11 countries best positioned to assist vulnerable nations. Eight are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)—Denmark, Estonia, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, and the United States—while China, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) represent the non-OECD group.

Saliem Fakir, Executive Director of the African Climate Foundation, praised the initiative, stating:

“The CliF Vulnerability Index is an excellent tool that guides the effectiveness of climate finance measures for countries facing fiscal risks and constraints. It aligns with our work on adaptation and resilience investment platforms, where we seek to adopt systemic approaches to address climate risks and provide fiscal relief to highly indebted nations.”

By integrating climate vulnerability with access to finance, the CliF Index offers a more holistic framework for targeting aid and investment, ensuring resources reach those who need them most.

Investing in a safer future

As the impacts of climate change intensify, global adaptation finance must evolve from pledges to action-driven partnerships.

Investing in early adaptation not only saves lives and reduces economic losses but also helps build a fairer and more resilient global community.

The CliF Vulnerability Index offers a powerful tool to guide this process—ensuring that support is equitable, data-driven, and truly transformative for the world’s most at-risk nations.