Key Events in 2025 that will Impact Climate Action

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that this year is the warmest on record, based on six international datasets, surpassing the previous record set 2023. It is also the first year to see an average temperature exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Additionally, 2024 has broken several global records, including levels of greenhouse gases and air and sea surface temperatures, which have contributed to extreme events such as floods, heatwaves, and wildfires.

The report from the World Weather Attribution, “When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather in 2024,” highlights the severe impact of climate change. In 2024, an additional 41 days of dangerously high temperatures adversely affected human health and ecosystems. These extreme temperatures led to relentless heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods, causing thousands of fatalities and displacing millions of people from their homes.

The year also saw unprecedented heavy rainfall. Devastating floods were reported in various regions, including Kathmandu, Dubai, Rio Grande do Sul, and the Southern Appalachians, marking a tumultuous year of extreme weather events.

The BBC highlighted seven key events in 2025 that could influence climate action and progress as we look ahead to the new year.

First, experts warn that Donald Trump’s second presidency could significantly hinder climate action. The president-elect has ordered the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement, raising concerns that he may exit the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, some experts remain optimistic, believing that momentum for the energy transition is still strong, regardless of the actions taken by the current US president.

China currently leads in renewable energy production and installation capacity and is not reliant on the US for its energy transition efforts. Additionally, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed under the Biden-Harris administration, has spurred clean energy investments in the United States.

Second, in February, countries that signed the Paris Agreement will present updated and more ambitious climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These NDCs, revised every five years, detail the measures each country will take to reduce carbon emissions, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and adapt to its effects over the next decade. Each revision must reflect increased climate goals and ambitions.

Third, the COP16 Biodiversity Summit will be held in Rome, Italy, in late February. During this summit, countries will discuss how to achieve the goal of protecting 30% of the Earth’s land and seas by 2030, which was agreed upon in December 2022. These discussions are crucial, especially since deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon reached a nine-year low in 2024.

Fourth, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will release an advisory opinion on states’ climate obligations in early 2025. Climate advocates and experts view this as a significant step toward climate action, potentially influencing ongoing and future court rulings and litigation related to climate change.

Vanuatu, supported by 132 countries, has requested a legal opinion through a UN resolution due to the imminent threats posed by sea level rise to its nation, which consists of around 80 low-lying islands. Although the ICJ’s ruling will be non-binding, the advisory opinion concerning countries’ obligations to combat climate change will likely be referenced in climate court cases worldwide.

According to the ICJ Registrar, these advisory opinions carry “authoritative value and cannot be neglected,” as they have substantial moral authority as they are issued by what is regarded as the world’s highest court and the principal judicial body of the UN (Landmark Climate, 2024).

Fifth, the surge in satellite launches in recent years aimed at collecting data on climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is providing unprecedented insights into environmental degradation. These satellites will also track forest destruction and monitor changes in the migratory routes of marine wildlife. According to the BBC, the first European satellite dedicated to measuring atmospheric CO2 and identifying its sources, MicroCarb, is scheduled to launch in May 2025. Another more advanced CO2 satellite is expected to launch in 2026.

Sixth, to address the growing global issue of plastic pollution, delegates will reconvene this year for another round of discussions following a failure to reach an agreement in 2024. At this year’s convention, delegates hope to finalise a treaty.

Key points of contention include whether nations should focus on curbing plastic pollution or increasing plastic recycling to reduce waste. Additionally, there are debates over how much financial support should be provided to developing countries to help them transition to less polluting business models and whether this support should be binding or voluntary.

The BBC reports that 95 countries, including the UK, the EU, the African Group, and several South American nations, have called for a legally binding commitment to reduce plastic production levels. However, oil-producing countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have resisted this initiative.

Lastly, the 10th climate change summit, COP 30, will occur this November in Belém, Brazil. This summit marks a significant milestone since the signing of the Paris Agreement, which pledges countries to prevent global temperatures from rising above 1.5°C.