Key Risks and Opportunities in Using Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) provides a cleaner alternative to traditional jet fuel, helping reduce carbon intensity and reliance on fossil fuels.

SAF is a safe, nearly identical replacement for conventional jet fuel and could cut aviation fuel emissions by up to 80%, with the potential for a 100% reduction in the future. This makes SAF a crucial step toward achieving the aviation sector’s net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.

Since the first biofuel test flight on a commercial plane in 2008, the industry and its partners have made significant progress. SAF has been certified by ASTM International, the global fuel standards body. Since 2011, over 750,000 flights have used blends of SAF and traditional fuel.

On October 7, 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) set a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of achieving net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050. ICAO is a specialised agency of the United Nations that leads the international alignment of technical standards and strategies, facilitating the safe, secure, and sustainable development of its 193 member states’ aviation sectors and air services.

During the 41st ICAO Assembly held in September and October 2022, the member states adopted the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) long-term aspirations to formalise an international agreement to reduce aviation-related carbon emissions.

This agreement is structured similarly to the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2018 Initial Greenhouse Gas Strategy but establishes a more ambitious long-term reduction target. Just as the IMO’s agreement has prompted new policies and investments in low- and zero-emission ships, the ICAO policy can potentially be a significant catalyst for change in the aviation sector.

The new flagship report produced by Airports of Tomorrow, an initiative of the World Economic Forum, is titled “Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025.” This report brings together leaders from across the aviation industry. It is based on interviews with top executives from the World Economic Forum’s aviation community and discussions held in 2024. Its purpose is to provide an overview of the significant risks and opportunities affecting the progress of aviation decarbonisation in 2025.

The main concerns identified focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) availability and cost, geopolitical tensions, and the tariffs associated with growing protectionism. The overarching goal is to accelerate the aviation industry’s efforts regarding SAF, battery-electric, and hydrogen aviation technologies to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

In late 2024 and early 2025, Chief Executive Officers from the World Economic Forum’s aviation community were asked: How can the aviation industry achieve the ambitious goal of net-zero emissions while expanding? What actions and priorities need to be taken? What risks should public-private collaboration focus on this year to accelerate progress toward decarbonisation?

These discussions aim to capture the evolution of aviation executives’ perspectives over time and highlight ongoing opportunities for public-private collaboration. Their responses have informed this report, which seeks to set the agenda for discussions in the year ahead.

The views of aviation executives interviewed for this report reveal several challenges impacting climate action. Some risks are specific to the aviation sector, while others arise from broader economic and geopolitical constraints.

Below are the top ten risks affecting the aviation decarbonisation progress outlined in the WEF report:

Despite challenges in 2024, including the SAF plant closures, scrapped projects, and delays in policy guidance and incentives, the 30 C-suite executives interviewed for this report remained cautiously optimistic regarding the decarbonisation goals of the aviation industry. More than two-thirds were confident that the momentum for aviation decarbonisation will continue in 2025, with a minority voicing neutral or negative expectations for the year ahead.

To align with the priorities outlined in the report, the World Economic Forum’s sustainable aviation initiatives for 2025 will focus on the following:

1. Continuing discussions on SAF policy and geopolitics to identify regional synergies and promote increased investment in SAF production while boosting demand, particularly in emerging markets.

2. Maintaining emphasis on zero-emissions propulsion and infrastructure, with an upcoming report on how airports can serve as energy hubs. This report will include a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of multi-fuel applications at airports.

3. Exploring how innovation can support aviation climate adaptation and mitigation by sharing best practices and solutions that airports and airlines implement to disseminate key findings and lessons learned.

Learn more about the report: Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025