NIWA’s Climate Projection Helps NZ Manage Climate Change Risk

This year, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), New Zealand’s Crown Research Institute, produced an updated climate projection.

According to NIWA, these projections are not predictions or forecasts but show a range of possibilities based on the best available science and data to understand what to expect in the future.

This updated climate projection was distilled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) titled ‘The Physical Science Basis’, published in August 2021, particularly the data and information relevant to New Zealand.

For this update, NIWA used six global models (ACCESS-CM2, NorESM2-MM, EC-Earth3, GFDL-ESM4, AWI-CM-1-1MR and CNRM-CM6-1) and incorporated regional climate models, and sophisticated statistical/machine-learning approaches to develop high-resolutions projections specific to New Zealand.

The result is a more downscaled and high-resolution climate projection, from the global 100-kilometre resolution presented by the IPCC AR6 report to a 5-kilometre resolution for New Zealand by 2100, providing clearer and more accurate climate change projections for New Zealand.

The video below from NIWA shows climate projections for New Zealand by the end of the century, considering two different future scenarios or shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). These SSPs are based on population growth and whether economic development relies heavily on fossil fuels or renewables.

The first scenario is an optimistic one where CO2 emissions decline to net zero closer to 2050 and with strong international cooperation on sustainability. The second scenario is bleak and less hopeful, where CO2 levels will roughly double by 2100, and there will be minimal action and global cooperation to reduce emissions.

Watch the video to compare the possible effects of climate change in 2100 between the two scenarios—the optimistic one and the less hopeful one, in which global emissions continue unabated.

This video shows the updated climate change projections for New Zealand that NIWA produced in 2024. It will support the country’s transition to a low-emissions, climate-resilient economy.

For more information on the updated national climate change projections for Aotearoa New Zealand, visit the NIWA website.