NZ’s Emission Cuts Balance Agriculture and Climate Pledge

New Zealand’s climate change minister, Simon Watts, is scheduled to attend COP30, which is currently taking place in Belém, Brazil. In October, a month before the COP30 event, the government announced a revision of its methane reduction target, lowering it from the previous goal of 24% by 2050 to a new range of 14% to 24%.

While the New Zealand farmers welcomed the announcement, it has also received criticism from climate advocates in the country.

New Zealand’s agricultural emissions account for nearly 50% of its total GHG emissions, making it unique among developed countries, where agriculture is the single largest source of emissions. Methane and nitrous oxide are the two leading agricultural greenhouse gases. Methane makes up most of these emissions and comes from farmed livestock, such as sheep and cattle (climate change, n.d.).

Factors contributing to New Zealand’s high proportion of methane emissions

The country has a low population and limited heavy industry, resulting in fewer CO2 emissions from the transport, manufacturing, and energy sectors. Additionally, it has a significant pastoral farming base, with 5.8 million dairy cattle and 23.5 million sheep as of June 2024 (Birch, 2025). The country also heavily relies on agricultural exports; according to a report by Beef + Lamb New Zealand and the Meat Industry Association, approximately 94% of all sheep meat production and 87% of beef production are exported. This makes the agricultural sector economically vital.

According the country’s Ministry for Primary Industries’ report, New Zealand’s top 10 export partners for all its agriculture products in 2023 and 2024 are: China worth 1.7 billion, followed by the United States at 6.5 billion, Australia at 4.5 billion, the EU at 3.3 billion, Japan at 2.7 billion, South Korea at 1.4 billion, Taiwan at 1.4 billion, Indonesia at 1.3 billion, Malaysia at 1.2 billion, and the United Kingdom 1.1 billion.

Reasons for New Zealand’s new emissions target

The Government says it’s changing this aspect of its climate change targets because achieving the upper end of the current range (47%) was “unrealistic”, and would create “economic uncertainty, risks exacerbating land use change, and could increase food production costs”. It highlights that the country’s primary sector earns nearly $60 billion in export revenue and provides more than one in ten Kiwi jobs.

The decision was based on findings from two reports. The first is from the Climate Change Commission, which reviewed the 2050 emissions target and concluded that methane emissions would need to be reduced by 10-22%. The second report, entitled “Agriculture emissions and warming in Aotearoa New Zealand to 2050: Insights from the science,” was conducted by scientists at Oxford University and Cranfield University and funded by New Zealand farmers. This study indicated that a reduction of 15-27% in emissions would be necessary by 2050.

The government has confirmed new policies alongside its latest target. One key policy is the exemption of agricultural methane emissions from taxes, which aims to prevent farm closures and the potential loss of jobs and production to overseas markets. Instead of a pricing mechanism for agricultural emissions, which essentially aims to reduce herd size, which is “not an economically rational place” for the country to be in, according to Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, methane will be achieved through collaboration and industry leadership, with a focus on incentives for key dairy industries.

Additionally, the government plans to explore a separate targets approach for carbon dioxide and methane in all of New Zealand’s future international climate change commitments. This initiative will also emphasise the importance of food production in New Zealand by better aligning domestic legislation with the language of the Paris Agreement.

To support this new emissions target, the government is investing more than $400 million in technology and methane-cutting tools, which are expected to roll out in 2026. These include innovations such as EcoPond, which reduces effluent pond emissions by over 90%; advances in genetics, vaccines, feed, and farm management; New Zealand-developed bolus, or small metal capsule, that delivers a slow-release dose of methane-suppressing medicine in a cow’s body which will be available to farmers from 2027; and an on-farm emissions calculator to help farmers better measure their methane emissions and find ways to reduce them without harming production. The government announcement says that if 30% of farmers adopt these new technologies, then it could slash methane emissions by up to 14% over the next decade.  

“Our approach is clear: technology and partnership, not taxes, will deliver the reductions that we need. By investing in new tools and giving farmers practical support, we can cut emissions without cutting production or profitability,” says Minister of Climate Change, Simon Watts.

Pushbacks from the new methane targets

The government’s new methane emissions target has faced criticism. Greenpeace’s article argues that New Zealand’s coalition government, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, has weakened the country’s climate commitments despite the Climate Commission’s advice to strengthen them. It claims the decision is based on “dodgy accounting” and is influenced by agribusiness lobbyists, undermining global action on climate change and violating the Paris Agreement. Additionally, New Zealand’s reduced methane targets could encourage other countries, such as Ireland and Uruguay, to adopt similar approaches.

Greenpeace released a graph comparing New Zealand’s agricultural emissions per US$ with those of other OECD countries, showing that it ranks sixth-worst among OECD countries, just above Argentina, Iceland, and the Philippines.

James Renwick, who was among dozens of scientists who signed an open letter earlier this year urging against a weaker methane target, said he did not expect other countries at COP30 would be impressed with New Zealand’s new approach to methane. He says that countries are supposed to increase ambition at the COP 30, not reduce it. He added that it could affect New Zealand’s trade relationships with other countries looking for “green” imports (Newton, 2025).

The reason for these very high emissions, according to Greenpeace, is that New Zealand’s high reliance on exporting its dairy products – 95% of them go to other countries, treating New Zealand as a “mine” for milk powder. It also has inefficient dairy farming practices, and politicians should stop saying it does.