NZ Weather and Climate Study Offer Adaptation Solutions

The Whakahura Programme recently concluded its five-year run with NZ$10 million in funding. It has released its key research findings in a synthesis report titled “Extreme Weather Events and the Emergence of Climate Change.”

The term “Whakahura” translates to “uncover” or “discover” in te reo Māori.

In Aotearoa, New Zealand, research on climate change has primarily focused on the slower aspects, such as sea level rise and average temperature increases. The Whakahura Programme is the first research initiative dedicated to studying extreme weather events related to climate change in the country.

Why focus on extreme events? The report notes that focusing on average change can obscure high and low extremes, and besides the slower-evolving effects of climate change, they do not yet have a significant impact on the country.

However, extreme events are already causing great harm, so researching more about them can support those leading climate adaptation efforts.

The Whakahura Programme has produced comprehensive evidence applicable to national and international climate adaptation efforts. Over the past five years, this science-based initiative has developed significant research and a deep understanding of how human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) influence extreme weather events (EWEs).

Specifically, it has investigated changes in the frequency and intensity of EWEs and, importantly, assessed the impacts of these hazards on economic assets, natural systems, well-being, and te ao Māori.

Key findings in the report include that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity, with some hazards, like extreme heat, short, intense rainfall, and fire risk, changing particularly fast in Aotearoa New Zealand.

The research also highlights the varied impacts of extreme weather, including economic, infrastructural, cultural and experiential effects, with Māori communities being disproportionately affected.

The programme’s outputs can be categorised into three areas: understanding real-world changes, identifying real-world impacts, and offering real-world solutions.

1. Understanding Real-World Changes: Whakahura research indicates extreme weather events (EWEs) increase frequency and intensity. Some hazards are changing more rapidly than others in this country, particularly extreme heat, short and intense rainfall events, and fire risk. Furthermore, locations already vulnerable to specific EWEs will likely experience more of these events in the future.
   
2. Identifying Real-World Impacts: Extreme weather events evidently have a wide range of adverse effects, impacting economic, infrastructural, cultural, and experiential dimensions, with direct and indirect consequences.
   
   Research has shown that the costs associated with extreme weather are already significant and continue to rise. These costs disproportionately affect individuals in lower socioeconomic situations, including the Māori community. Unfortunately, emergency management and adaptation planning have not meaningfully involved these communities.
   
3. Offering Real-World Solutions: The programme has already improved resilience planning, informed policy decisions, and enhanced preparedness for extreme weather events in Aotearoa New Zealand.
   
   The research has shown that Māori possess risk management approaches that align well with mainstream Disaster Risk Reduction planning and procedures, providing practical adaptation solutions.
   
   Utilising Māori’s local knowledge is an effective climate adaptation strategy. It delivers location-appropriate, holistic, nature-based solutions that benefit the wider community and future generations.

Through the experiences of the Whakahura Programme, the team identifies some potential systemic changes that could strengthen the interface between researchers and decision-makers.

These relate to taking a joined-up approach to data management, strengthening partnerships between public organisations and iwi (tribe) or hapū (clan), and improving collaboration and rethinking scale within government functions connected with climate change.

Learn more about the Whakahura Programme’s report by visiting the link in the “Sources” section below.