Bananas are among the world’s most beloved fruits and rank as the fourth most important food crop after wheat, rice, and maize. Yet, rising temperatures, extreme weather, and the spread of climate-driven pests are putting banana-growing regions — especially in Latin America and the Caribbean — at risk.

Bananas thrive best in temperatures between 15°C and 35°C and require a delicate balance of moisture: enough water to grow, but not excessive rainfall. Increasingly erratic weather patterns, such as flooding and prolonged rain, are damaging banana crops and accelerating the spread of black leaf fungus. This disease flourishes in wet conditions and severely limits a plant’s ability to photosynthesise.

According to a new Christian Aid report (May 2025), regions responsible for nearly 80% of global banana exports could lose up to 60% of their most suitable growing areas by 2080.

The human cost of a dying crop

For the 400 million people who depend on bananas for up to 27% of their daily calorie intake, this fruit is far more than a snack – it is a lifeline.

The report includes accounts from banana growers in Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Colombia, who work alongside Christian Aid’s local partner organisations. One grower, Aurelia Pop Xo, aged 53, from Guatemala, shared her story:

“Climate change has been killing our crops. This means we have no income since we cannot sell anything. What is happening is that my plantation has been dying. So, what has been happening is death.”

She added:

“In the past, there was a prediction that this would happen in the future, but it has come earlier because we are not taking care of our motherland and our ecosystems. This is very worrying for our kids and especially for our grandkids. What is uncertain is that this situation may worsen, and we could lose the whole plantation. This would be a huge issue for me.”

Aurelia’s experience reflects the growing reality for smallholders across the tropics: falling yields, economic uncertainty, and food insecurity brought on by climate change.

The fragile future of the Cavendish banana

The Cavendish banana dominates Western supermarket shelves because of its resistance to certain fungal diseases, long shelf life, and high productivity. However, this variety is propagated through cloning, which means that each plant is genetically identical to the next. While this uniformity supports large-scale production, it also makes the Cavendish banana highly vulnerable to disease — one infection can wipe out entire plantations.

This lack of genetic diversity is a ticking time bomb for the global banana industry, particularly in an era of increasing climatic stress.

The Christian Aid report stresses the urgent need for investment in climate adaptation, recommending:

• Improved irrigation and water management in drier regions;
• Research into heat- and drought-tolerant banana varieties; and
• A shift away from pesticide-intensive monocultures towards more diverse cropping systems.
  

A call for global action

To protect the livelihoods of banana growers, Christian Aid urges governments to incorporate stronger agricultural adaptation measures into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — climate action plans under the Paris Agreement. The organisation also calls on wealthier nations to provide financial support to help banana-growing regions adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions.

Without urgent action, both the fruit bowl staple and the communities that depend on it could face a perilous future.