Report Reveals NZ’s Most Urgent Climate Risks

The National Climate Change Risks Assessment (NCCRA) is New Zealand’s latest and significant report on climate change. A panel of experts and consultants leads this inquiry with engagement with the Māori/iwi and stakeholders.

The report shows New Zealand’s most significant risks and sectors under these five domains – natural environment, human, economy, built environment, and governance.

Climate risks are ranked according to the degree of consequence (exposure and vulnerability to extreme events) and urgency. Risks that score high in both categories – consequences and urgency- are labelled as the most significant risks that need the most urgent response or “further action within the next six years”.

New Zealand’s 10 most significant climate change under the five domains

• Coastal and indigenous ecosystems – including estuaries, dunes, coastal lakes, wetlands due to sea-level rise, extreme events and increase of invasive species due to climate change.
• Community well-being is affected by displacements and inequality in adapting to climate change due to differences in age, race, socioeconomic status, literacy, etc.
• Economic costs from lost productivity and disaster relief costs. Extreme climate events will affect livelihoods and widen socio-economic gaps and the economy as a whole.
• Availability and supply of potable water, the risk to buildings and infrastructures (wastewater and stormwater, ports, etc) due to sea-level rise and other severe climatic events.
• Maladaptation of governments because climate change is not accounted for or integrated into the legislative (laws and statutes), funding mechanisms, and government policies.

The purpose of the NCCRA

New Zealand is already experiencing the effects of climate change, and the report mentioned those events that have occurred within the last 10 to 20 years and those predicted to happen in the near future or by 2050 and in the long-term at 2100 to 2150.

Another purpose of the NCCRA report is to identify and address the potential of maladaptation in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). The NCCRA intends to create a holistic and thorough adaptation plan that addresses climate change risks, hazards, and opportunities.

Opportunities from climate change

The report revealed a few opportunities for climate change. These are opportunities to provide services and goods for adaptation.

Warmer temperatures will: allow South Island to grow Kiwifruit, increase the yield and size of apples, timber plantation will grow quicker due to high concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but faster growth rates can also result in reduced timber strength, reduce deaths due to cold temperatures, and lower heating bills.

The report is cautious about these opportunities as it assumes that the water supply is plentiful and does not include the potential spread of pests due to warming weather. Also, increased crop yields will add to water demands.

Cascading effects

Climate change will have a cascading effect on other sectors of society because of the interconnectedness and interdependencies of things around us. In consultation with the Maori and iwi, they have highlighted the interconnection of the natural environment and people – its culture, well-being, structures, and prosperity.

The cascading effect means that a primary event threat will give rise to many more or a sequence of unfortunate events. For example, a flood (main event) can damage roads and disrupt electricity and water supply, affecting tourism, work, and household activities.

Gaps in knowledge

The report identified some gaps in knowledge and more data on the following:

• inventories and data on ecosystems and species,
• the relationship between social vulnerabilities and social heritage,
• climate change effects on banking and insurance,
• consistent hazard information to assess the built environment’s exposure to climate change, and so on.

Research opportunities will arise to bridge these knowledge gaps and enhance the national climate adaptation plan.

The climate risks that the NCCRA revealed will help New Zealand and its communities prepare and build resilience against climate change’s present and future challenges.

To read further, click the “National Climate Change Risks Assessment (NCCRA) Main Report” link below.