Studies in 2024 Show that Climate Change is Accelerating

The data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirms that 2024 is the earth’s warmest year on record and was the first to exceed the 1.5°C (2.7 F) limit above the pre-industrial average set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. 2024 also outstripped the temperature rise in 2023, the previous hottest year on record. The year had an average temperature of 1.48°C above the pre-industrial average.

As global temperatures continue to rise, scientists claim that climate change and its impacts are accelerating faster than expected. Reuters has compiled recently published studies supporting scientists’ assertion of advancing climate change.

The earth has already reached the 1.5°C level of warming

The Earth has reached a critical threshold of 1.5°C warming above the average pre-industrial temperature. Scientists warn that this level poses a risk of irreversible and extreme climate change.

A study titled “Estimated Human-Induced Warming from a Linear Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 Relationship,” published in Nature Geoscience in November, revised the baseline period for measuring warming to before 1700 rather than the previously used 1850-1900 timeframe. Study authors Professor Piers Forster from the University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment and Dr Andrew Jarvis from Lancaster University based their analysis on 2,000 years of atmospheric gases trapped in Antarctic ice cores.

The AMOC is weakening

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic and has helped to keep European winters milder for centuries, is slowing down. While the 2018 study estimates that the AMOC has weakened by about 15% since 1960, research published in the journal Science Advances, “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course”, reveals a stark finding that the AMOC is close to collapsing.

This precarious situation is primarily attributed to the influx of freshwater being released into the ocean from melting glaciers and ice sheets, disrupting the balance of this intricate system. If the AMOC were to collapse, it could lead to significant changes in climate patterns, impacting weather systems not just in Europe but across the globe.

Mass coral bleaching

Mass coral bleaching has occurred along coastlines from Australia to Kenya and Mexico, causing the world’s vibrant reefs to turn white. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch, this event marks the fourth global bleaching event since 1985 and the second in the last decade.

From February 2023 to April 2024, mass coral bleaching has been confirmed throughout the tropics. Affected areas include Florida in the United States, the Caribbean, Brazil, the eastern Tropical Pacific (which encompasses Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia), Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, large regions of the South Pacific (including Fiji, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Samoas, and French Polynesia), the Red Sea (including the Gulf of Aqaba), the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Aden.

More Extreme weather

Ocean warming is causing Atlantic storms to intensify rapidly, with some storms escalating from Category 1 to Category 3 in just a matter of hours, finding from the study titled “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates,” published in Nature in October 2023.

The study highlights that tropical cyclones regularly pose a significant hazard to the US. Compared to 1971 to 1990, the Atlantic and Gulf coasts intensified by up to 28.7% from 2001 to 2020. Furthermore, the number of tropical cyclones that transition from a Category 1 hurricane or weaker into a major hurricane within 36 hours has more than doubled during these periods.

Recent events exemplify these findings, such as Hurricane Milton in October 2024, which transformed from a tropical storm to the Gulf’s second most powerful hurricane within just one day, striking Florida’s west coast. Additionally, warmer air holds more moisture, leading to heavier and more intense rainfall, which can result in catastrophic floods and landslides.

Climate change increases wildfire deaths

A 2024 study titled “Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change” finds that climate change intensifies the effects of fire smoke, releasing hazardous air pollutants that threaten human health.

In 2010, it was reported that 12.8% of fatalities linked to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions were connected to climate change. The impact of climate change on mortality is most significant in South America, Australia, and Europe, particularly in areas with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests experiencing increased air temperatures.

Los Angeles wildfires

As of this blog post, seven wildfires are raging in Los Angeles County. According to The New York Times, at least five people have been killed, hundreds of thousands of residents are under evacuation orders, and three million residents are without power due to strong winds and a dwindling water supply, which are hampering firefighters’ efforts to contain the destruction. The fires have burned 1,000 structures, making them the most destructive wildfires in Los Angeles history, according to CalFire, the state fire agency.

While wildfires are increasing globally and emitting significant amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, a study titled “Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends,” published by the AGU in July 2024, analysed carbon storage trends across the American West from 2005 to 2019. The team discovered that throughout most of the region, climate change and wildfires may be causing forests to store less carbon rather than more.

The study estimated the carbon stored in living and dead trees across 19 ecoregions. It found that between 2005 and 2019, carbon stored in living trees declined across much of the Western US, while carbon stored in dead trees and woody debris increased. Standing dead trees and fallen logs do not provide long-term carbon storage, which means that a large amount of carbon dioxide is released back into the atmosphere through decomposition or combustion during wildfires.

Conversely, the NOAA’s 2024 Arctic Report Card reveals that the warming climate and increased wildfires in the Arctic tundra are transforming it from a carbon sink into a carbon source, as carbon dioxide stored in its frozen soil for thousands of years is being released into the atmosphere.