The Economics of Proactive Climate Adaptation in Alaska

The environmental effects of climate change in Alaska, such as flooding, permafrost thaw, and increased precipitation, are making infrastructure vulnerable. The study looks at the impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure using two future climate scenarios adopted by the IPCC: RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5.

RCP 8.5 represents a high-emissions climate scenario in which CO2 emissions continue without efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. RCP 4.5 is the lower emissions scenario that assumes an emissions peak in 2040 and then starts to drop from that year.

The study discussed the impacts of climate change, such as the temperature rise across the Arctic, which has been twice the global average in recent decades, the reduction in sea and land ice, coastal erosion, permafrost thaw, and wildfire activity.

Permafrost thaw, for instance, can cause ground subsidence, negatively impacting buildings, roads, railroads, and other infrastructures. However, the study states that road flooding from increased precipitation is the largest source of damage.

The study quantified the losses to infrastructure using the two emissions scenarios from 2015 to 2099. Losses from infrastructure damage are more significant with the RCP 8.5 scenario than the RCP 4.5 scenario, suggesting that when emissions are reduced, the cost of infrastructure damages also decreases.

Proactive adaptation results in a reduction of expenditures for both future climate scenarios—RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5—with the former showing a more significant expenditure saving. The study’s adaptation measures refer to upfront investment and modification of infrastructure before climate-related damages occur.

The study shows that climate change will cause considerable infrastructure damage, but emissions mitigation efforts and proactive climate adaptation could significantly lessen this damage.

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