The Economics of Proactive Climate Adaptation in Alaska

The environmental effects of climate change in Alaska, such as flooding, permafrost thaw, and increased precipitation, are making infrastructure vulnerable. The study looks at the impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure using two future climate scenarios adopted by the IPCC: RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5.

RCP 8.5 represents a high-emissions climate scenario in which CO2 emissions continue without efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. RCP 4.5 is the lower-emissions scenario that assumes an emissions peak in 2040 and then declines thereafter.

The study discussed the impacts of climate change, including the temperature rise across the Arctic, which has been twice the global average in recent decades; reductions in sea and land ice; coastal erosion; permafrost thaw; and wildfire activity.

Permafrost thaw, for instance, can cause ground subsidence, negatively impacting buildings, roads, railroads, and other infrastructures. However, the study states that road flooding from increased precipitation is the largest source of damage.

The study quantified infrastructure losses under the two emissions scenarios from 2015 to 2099. Losses from infrastructure damage are greater under the RCP 8.5 scenario than under the RCP 4.5 scenario, suggesting that as emissions are reduced, the cost of infrastructure damage decreases.

Proactive adaptation results in reduced expenditures in both future climate scenarios—RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5—with the former showing a larger expenditure saving. The study’s adaptation measures refer to upfront investments and modifications to infrastructure before climate-related damage occurs.

The study shows that climate change will cause considerable infrastructure damage, but emissions mitigation efforts and proactive climate adaptation could significantly lessen this damage.

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