UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 says Climate Goal Unattainable

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its “Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target” on 4 November 2025. This edition, the sixteenth since the report’s first publication in 2010, indicates that the 1.5°C target is unattainable.

The report indicates that if countries fully implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the rise in global temperatures this century will be between 2.3°C and 2.5°C. However, under current policies, the projected warming is estimated to be between 2.6°C and 3.3°C. Last year’s report showed that, with full NDC implementation, warming could reach 2.6°C to 2.8°C, while the estimate based on current policies was 3.1°C.

The report notes that nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.

Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature limit means reducing annual emissions by 35-55% compared with 2019 levels. Given these deep reduction requirements and the short window of time in which they must occur, the report projects that the 1.5°C temperature limit will likely be breached within the next decade.

The report emphasises that the number of years with temperature breaches should be minimised by implementing faster and larger cuts to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Each year of inaction makes the journey toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and, subsequently, reaching net-negative emissions, more challenging, expensive, and disruptive. It highlights that every fraction of a degree we can avoid increases benefits for both people and ecosystems, reduces costs, and minimises our dependence on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods needed to reach the 1.5°C target by 2100.

The report notes that G20 member countries, excluding the African Union, are responsible for 77% of the world’s emissions and have increased by 0.7% in 2023. Most G20 countries saw emissions rise in 2024. India has the highest absolute increase, followed by China and Indonesia, a country with the fastest relative growth in emissions at 4.6% compared to India at 3.6%, and China at 0.5%.

Many countries outside the G20 also had significant increases in their emissions in 2024. Least developed countries (LDCs), which include many African Union countries, account for only 3% of global emissions.

The European Union is the only one of the six largest emitters to have reduced its emissions by 2.1% in 2024.

Inger Andersen, the Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, emphasises that avoiding even a fraction of a degree in temperature rise is essential for three key reasons. First, it helps mitigate the escalating climate impacts that disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable communities. Second, it reduces the risk of crossing climate tipping points—irreversible impacts such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Finally, it reduces our reliance on costly and uncertain CO2 removal methods.

Ingerson emphasises that advancements in affordable renewable energy and efforts to address methane emissions enable the international community to achieve necessary reductions in emissions. He calls on the G20 countries to establish and meet more ambitious climate targets, citing potential benefits such as accelerated economic growth, improved public health, increased job creation, enhanced energy security, and the fulfilment of various other developmental needs.

Download and read the report: Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target – Continued Collective inaction puts Global Temperature Goal at Risk.