A study by Ajay G. Bhave, Declan Conway, Suraje Dessai, and David A. Stainforth investigated how water resource planning can be done under deep uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin, India.
Long-term water resource planning can be problematic due to the uncertainty of regional climate change impacts and rapidly changing socio-economic conditions.
Researchers have applied the DMUU (Decision-making Under Certainty), a range of approaches to addressing climate change adaptation challenges.
It includes robust decision-making, information gap, decision theory, decision scaling, and dynamic adaptive pathways. It is based on the principle that an “assess-risk policy” is better than a “predict-then-act” approach under deep uncertainty conditions.
Specifically, the DMMU approach is used to investigate the climate adaptation options in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (CRBK), India, as it exemplifies two sources of future uncertainties: regional climate change and the effects of rapid socio-economic development.
The CRBK is the fourth largest river in the southern region, being 800 km from Western Gats, an easterly flowing river that runs across three southern Indian states.
The researchers have developed an iterative multi-method approach combining stakeholder-based analysis through engagement (qualitative) and modelling-based analysis (qualitative) to guide water resource planning.
The study aims to transfer the DMUU approach originating from developed economies to developing countries to address the following research goals:
- To develop and apply an iterative methodology that combines expert judgement, stakeholder engagement and model-based water resources for DMUU.
- To assess how future climate and socio-economic development scenarios affect water resources in the CRBK.
- To examine to what extent the adaptation pathways can address local and basin-wide performance.
The study concludes that the deep uncertainty of future precipitation and water demand in the CRBK is crucial to adaptation decision-making and infrastructure planning.
Changes in both climatic and socio-economic factors strongly influence water resource performance. The researchers found that the iterative approach to DMUU is valuable as it enables analysis to suit the decision context and stakeholder requirements.
Source:
Bhave, Ajay & Conway, Declan & Dessai, Suraje & Stainforth, David. (2018). Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socio-Economic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. Water Resources Research. 54. 10.1002/2017WR020970. Retrieved from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017WR020970
PHOTO CREDIT: Central Water Commission, India; Kaveri
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