A Framework for Climate Adaptation Plans in New Zealand

Climate change is already affecting communities and livelihoods in New Zealand through increased temperatures, longer droughts, and more intense storms. Coastal communities nationwide are vulnerable to climate change effects through sea-level rise, flooding, erosion and rising groundwater.

According to New Zealand’s Ministry for the Environment, its seas have increased by 21cm since 1900, and sea-level rise is projected to accelerate.

Planning for and implementing climate adaptation measures is more urgent than ever. Choosing how to respond to climate change presents both challenges and opportunities.  

One of these communities impacted by climate change is the residents of Makara Beach.

The Makara Beach Project                                            

The community-led project results from a series of six-month-long workshops held between the Wellington City Council and residents of Makara Beach.

The residents of Makara Beach, a quiet coastal settlement a half-hour winding drive from central Wellington, are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The seaside settlement consisting of 35 permanent homes is perched on a valley, exposed to high winds, and surrounded by water on three sides.

This vulnerability to climate change was realised in February 2018 when Makara Beach was hit hard by ex-cyclone Gita. A storm surge from the cyclone flooded the beach area, and the sea water flooded into some residents’ homes in the middle of the night.

The incident prompted the residents to seek help from the Wellington City Council to devise a plan to adapt to higher sea levels and more frequent storm events.

The objective of this community-led initiative in collaboration with the Wellington Council is “To develop a community endorsed recommendation for how Makara Beach Community can prepare for, and adapt to, extreme weather events, sea level rise, storm surges and coastal erosion”.

Pathways thinking

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), the country’s crown research institute, presents a framework for climate change adaptation using a “pathways thinking” approach.

This framework guides climate adaptation plans for communities, individuals, families, and schools. According to NIWA, making the best choices on how to respond to climate change effects requires that communities and individuals first understand the physical world around them and what science is saying about the future climate, decisions about what needs to be protected, what you would be willing to change and what that would cost.

NIWA developed the five-step framework to guide communities in planning their response to climate change and adaptation strategies.

According to NIWA, pathway thinking allows communities and individuals to develop strategies for expected climate impacts while not compromising or shutting off other options. This flexible approach recognises that conditions can change and means we avoid being locked into any one course. Pathways thinking is an approach used by the Ministry for the Environment’s coastal hazards guidance. Councils and others around Aotearoa use it to plan how to adapt to a changing climate.

Pathway thinking came from Snyder’s Hope Theory, introduced by an American psychologist specialising in positive psychology. Snyder’s Hope Theory has three main components: goals, pathways, and agency. Goals are defined as the object of a person’s ambition, effort, or desired result.

Pathways are a person’s ability or belief to generate various routes or pathways from the present situation to their goals. This also includes having a plan for managing and overcoming obstacles on these routes or pathways, and having multiple pathways will make the goal achievable. Lastly, agency refers to people’s belief that they can use the pathways and routes to attain their objectives. It also includes the ability to motivate oneself to reach goals.

Using the theory, it’s essential to recognise a few key points to effectively address the coastal adaptation challenges faced by New Zealand’s vulnerable communities.

First, it’s essential to understand that while climate change brings certain uncertainties, it will undoubtedly result in changes that must be addressed.

Second, this understanding allows communities to envision a range of possible future scenarios, enabling strategic planning for each situation.

Third, it encourages individuals, families, and the larger community to reflect on what matters most, facilitating informed choices among the available short and long-term options.

Finally, this process supports gradual decision-making and investment, helping communities to identify critical triggers—like floods—and prepare proactive strategies ahead of time.

NIWA lists three case studies in New Zealand that apply the pathways thinking to climate change adaptation:

• The Makara Beach Project  (YouTube)
• The Makara Beach Project
• South Dunedin adaptation project 

The Makara Beach Project is a community-led collaborative process that can provide the framework for working with other coastal communities in Wellington as they prepare for and adapt to living with higher sea levels and more frequent storm events.