Australia’s Climate Risks Assessment Shows What Future Holds

Australia released its first and much-anticipated “National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA)” on 15 September 2025, providing a sobering picture of how the nation will face intensifying climate impacts.

The landmark 72-page report predicts more frequent and severe climate hazards — including floods, cyclones, heatwaves, droughts, and bushfires — as global temperatures continue to rise.

The NCRA offers the most comprehensive analysis yet of Australia’s current and future climate risks, consolidating information from multiple sectors, including national security, trade and economy, health, infrastructure, natural ecosystems, food production, and water security.

Understanding the climate scenarios

Authored by hundreds of climate scientists, policymakers, and experts, the NCRA was released just days before the federal government is set to announce its 2035 emissions reduction targets.

The report assesses the impacts of climate change under three warming scenarios: 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C above pre-industrial levels. It highlights the stark difference between these futures compared to today’s warming level of 1.2°C.

For example, under a 3°C scenario compared to today’s conditions:

• Australians could spend four times as much time under heatwave conditions.
• Extreme heat-related fatalities could increase by up to 5 times.
• Economic productivity losses from heat stress are projected to reach between AU$135 billion and AU$423 billion by 2063.
• The number of Australians at risk of coastal flooding could double to 1.5 million by 2050.
• Property values could decline by more than AU$611 billion by 2050.

Key systems at risk

Page 17 of the NCRA outlines climate risks across Australia’s key systems, including:

• Natural environment
• Infrastructure and built environment
• Food production and water security
• Health and well-being
• Trade and economy
• National security

The report indicates that by 2050, risks across these systems are expected to range from very high to severe, depending on the level of global warming. These findings reinforce the urgency of mitigation, preparation, and climate adaptation strategies to safeguard communities, ecosystems, and the economy.

Urgent need for emission cuts

The NCRA underscores that rapidly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential to limit the worst impacts of climate change. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2035 is Australia’s key target to help keep global warming below 2°C, in line with international commitments.

The findings serve as both a warning and a guide for policymakers, industry leaders, and citizens to act decisively in building a more resilient and climate-ready Australia.