Investing more in agricultural research can prevent the rise in hunger in Africa, the South of the Sahara and South Asia, according to a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
The study says that climate change will push 78 million more people into chronic hunger by 2050. Increasing investments in international agriculture research from US$1.62 billion to US$2.77 billion per year between 2015 and 205 will offset these impacts.
The study assesses the cost of climate change adaptation across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options, focusing on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries.
“The modelling done in this study refines the most current and advanced methodologies, using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) from IFPRI.
It links climate, crop, water, and economic models to analyze scenarios of future change in agricultural production, consumption, prices, and trade at national, regional, and global scales.
The researchers compare various scenarios, including a future without climate change, ‘favorable’ trajectories in which population growth slows and per capita income rises, less optimistic demographic trajectories, and the most severe changes to climate” (To Prevent Hunger, 2021).
The analysis in the report offers some key messages about the cost and trade-offs of investing in research and development, water management, and infrastructure for climate adaptation to end hunger:
- Climate change will slow the progress to reducing hunger to 2050, particularly in Africa south of the Sahara.
- Increased investment in agriculture can support climate change adaptation. R&D is the most cost-effective in offsetting the impacts of climate change as measured by the hunger indicator.
- Estimating the ranges of results give some context about the potential for investments, either under-or overshoot highlighted impacts, along with a better idea about costs that should be considered as part of the trade-offs
- Increased investment in water management and infrastructure will complement and sustain long term R&D-based gains. Other investments will be needed to achieve broader measures of adaptation.
- Among investment alternatives, R&D offers the largest reductions in hunger but smaller improvements in blue water use and irrigation supply reliability.
Water management investments provide more significant improvement in blue water use and irrigation supply but smaller reductions in hunger. And a comprehensive approach offers improvement in all goals but is much more costly.
To read the entire report, click the link below:
To Prevent Hunger, Climate Adaptation Requires Billion in Additional Annual Investments. (2021, June 22). SciTechDaily. Retrieved from https://scitechdaily.com/to-prevent-hunger-climate-adaptation-requires-billions-in-additional-annual-investments/
Sulser, T., Wiebe, K.D., Dunston, S., Cenacchi, N., Nin-Pratt, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Robertson, R.D., Willenbockel, D., and Rosegrant, M. (2021). Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. Food policy report June 2021. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165