Climate Adaptation Essential as 1.5°C Breach Predicted in 2026

The latest data from the “Copernicus Climate Change Service” (C3S) show that 2025 is virtually tied with 2023 as the second-warmest year on record, based on records dating back to 1850. November 2025 was also the third-warmest November ever recorded, with particularly above-average temperatures across northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean.

The month was marked by several extreme weather events, including powerful tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia that caused widespread flooding and significant loss of life, according to Copernicus.

“For November, global temperatures were 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, and the three-year average for 2023–2025 is on track to exceed 1.5°C for the first time. These milestones are not abstract; they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change, and the only way to mitigate future temperature rises is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

The temperature assessment is based on the global average from January to December 2025, reinforcing concerns that warming is becoming increasingly entrenched.

Crossing the 1.5°C threshold

A key finding from Copernicus is that November 2025 temperatures were 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels. Moreover, the three-year average spanning 2023 to 2025 is projected to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, making it the first such multi-year period to cross this threshold. Scientists warn that this signals an accelerating pace of climate change rather than a temporary fluctuation.

These findings align with the United Nations Emissions Gap Report 2025, which concludes that the world is likely to breach the 1.5°C warming threshold within the next decade.

The report stresses that limiting the duration and magnitude of this overshoot through faster and deeper emissions cuts is essential to reduce climate risks and damages, and to preserve the possibility of returning to 1.5°C by 2100, although this pathway is increasingly difficult.

Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces losses to people and ecosystems, lowers economic costs, and lessens reliance on uncertain large-scale carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Climate tipping points and systemic risks

According to an OECD report, warming beyond 1.5°C does not result in marginally worse impacts; instead, it risks triggering climate tipping points that could cascade through ecological and socio-economic systems.

Among the most critical tipping points identified are the potential collapse of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which would lead to substantial sea-level rise. The thawing of Arctic permafrost is another major concern, as it releases methane and carbon dioxide from long-frozen organic matter, accelerating warming while damaging infrastructure as the ground subsides.

The report also highlights the risk of a slowdown or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a vast ocean current system that transports heat northwards. Such a disruption could cause regional cooling in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, intensify extreme weather, and severely affect agriculture and ecosystems. Additionally, large-scale forest dieback, particularly in the Amazon, could radically alter biodiversity, regional climates, and global carbon cycles.

The need for transformational adaptation

The OECD notes a significant lack of global policies that explicitly address climate tipping point risks. Even if warming could be stabilised at 1.5°C, which current projections suggest is unlikely, climate adaptation remains essential.

The report calls for transformational adaptation, defined as changes that fundamentally reshape human and natural systems to increase their resilience to climate hazards.

This report includes leveraging technological innovation, such as artificial intelligence, advanced climate modelling, remote sensing, the Internet of Things, and improved monitoring systems, to better anticipate risks and implement effective responses. Together, these approaches are critical to preparing societies for the profound impacts of a warming world.