Food Security Risk Due to Climatic Extremes and Other Factors

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations publishes a quarterly report on major disasters that threaten food security and agriculture, including new emergencies or developments that can exacerbate a region’s already vulnerable situation.

This quarterly report serves as a warning of future disasters and threats. Along with a warning, the report also includes recommendations on how to prepare for and prevent further damage to food security.

Recommendations here would take the form of the most appropriate intervention specific to a region over the coming months to prevent the worst impacts on their livelihoods and agriculture due to disasters caused by climate extremes, such as prolonged dry days, floods, or other factors like conflicts and economic crises.

Identifying and classifying threats to food security

The report classifies threats to food security as “high risk” or “on watch.”

• “High risk” is used when new emergencies are anticipated to have severe effects on agriculture and food production.
• “On watch” indicates a moderate likelihood of threats that could have a potential impact, requiring close monitoring.

The Global Risk Maps indicate that the country and region experienced food insecurity, ranging from “high risk” to “on watch,” from January to March 2020.

Not only does the report identify regions at risk of disasters to food security, but it also provides a timeline of cyclone formations around the globe showing the seven tropical cyclone basins, the months these cyclones appear and peak on average, animal health threats that could potentially affect food security, and regions with or without humanitarian response plans.

Factors like cyclone seasons, animal health, and the presence of a humanitarian response plan can impact a region’s food security and coping capabilities.

Nigeria, South Sudan, Zimbabwe, Haiti, and Yemen are some of the “high-risk” countries identified in the report in terms of food security and agriculture. High-risk regions include almost all of Southeast Asia.

“On watch” countries include some African countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, as well as Venezuela in South America, Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic in the Middle East, Mongolia, and North Korea in Asia. “On-watch” regions include some countries in the southern parts of Africa.

Factors that threaten food security

Many factors threaten food security in a region or country; these are:

• Prolonged dry conditions like what is happening in North Korea and Haiti, floods, outbreaks of diseases like Ebola in Congo, 
• African swine fever outbreak in Asia,
• desert locust outbreak that threatens pastures and crops in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, and
• economic crisis;

According to the report, conflicts and displacements can pose a significant threat to food security, as seen in some countries in Africa and Yemen in the Middle East.

Overview, potential impact and recommendation

After identifying the countries and regions at risk, the report examines each country in more detail, gives an overview of the dangers, describes the potential impact, and then provides recommendations for early actions to prevent the worst from happening.

For example, the FAO has identified Zimbabwe as one of the countries at high risk for food security and agriculture. Severe droughts have led to a significant decline in cereal production, and rainfall deficits have also reduced maize production. The situation was compounded by outbreaks of pest diseases, which have increased humanitarian needs in the country.

The reduction in rainfall, averaging 9-40 per cent less than their long-term average, has not only delayed their crop planting but also reduced their planting areas. Current climate forecasts indicate more below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, resulting in warmer days, for the remainder of the season, which spans January to March 2020.

Their livestock also suffered from diseases, and cattle mortality increased by 15 per cent due to diseases. Severe drought has also affected the body conditions of their livestock.

Recommended early actions for Zimbabwe include distributing fast-maturing vegetable seeds and providing stronger and better storage equipment to prevent further post-harvest losses.

Recommendations for livestock include installing measures to control tick-borne diseases, rehabilitating watering points for livestock, distributing feed and mineral supplements to vulnerable livestock owners, and supporting breeders.

The FAO report serves as a valuable reference for identifying disaster-prone zones, food security risks, and potential solutions that can be integrated with climate adaptation or mitigation programs in towns, cities, or even entire countries.