Fossil Fuel Expanse Threatens Climate Change Adaptation Goals

Ten years have passed since the Paris Agreement was adopted by 195 countries at COP21 in 2015. Signatories committed to limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts to cap warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

At COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels and to work towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

However, new evidence suggests the world is moving in the opposite direction.

Fossil fuel production remains far off track

The 2025 Production Gap Report (PGR), produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The latest report, first released in 2019 and updated regularly since, finds that instead of reducing fossil fuel production, governments plan to extract far more than climate targets allow.

By 2030, planned production would generate 120% more emissions than permitted under the 1.5°C carbon budget, more than double what is compatible with that target. For the 2°C pathway, projected production exceeds the allowable budget by 77%.

The report builds on the 2023 analysis of fossil fuel production plans and policies across 20 major producing countries, which together account for over 82% of global fossil fuel output and nearly three-quarters of global consumption. These include Australia, China, India, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and several European and Asia-Pacific economies.

Production plans contradict climate commitments

To align with the 1.5°C goal, global coal, oil, and gas production must decline rapidly well before 2050. Yet current government plans indicate that by 2030, fossil fuel production will be 500% higher for coal, 31% higher for oil, and 92% higher for gas than levels consistent with the 1.5°C pathway. Even under the less ambitious 2°C pathway, production remains significantly above safe limits.

The report makes clear that most countries have yet to adopt policies that actively phase out fossil fuel production. Each year of delay increases the scale and speed of emissions reductions required later, narrowing the window for meeting the Paris Agreement goals and raising the risk of severe climate impacts.

Rising emissions and escalating climate impacts

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies fossil fuel emissions as the dominant driver of global warming. Burning coal, oil, and gas, combined with land-use change, releases greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

According to Carbon Brief, climate attribution studies—research that assesses whether and how climate change has influenced specific extreme events—have grown rapidly since the first such study in 2004. In 2024 alone, more than 600 attribution studies covering 750 extreme weather events found that 74% were made more likely or more severe by climate change.

These findings underline the link between continued fossil fuel production, rising global temperatures, and escalating climate risks, reinforcing the urgency of both emissions reductions and climate adaptation.

Adaptation efforts lag behind growing risks

While climate impacts intensify, adaptation efforts remain insufficient. The UN Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report 2025 finds that current adaptation actions fall far short of what is needed.

Developing countries face adaptation costs estimated at 12–14 times current international public finance flows, with annual needs projected to reach US$310–365 billion by 2035. In 2023, however, vulnerable countries received only around US$26 billion in adaptation finance.

Many proven adaptation solutions already exist, including nature-based approaches, early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture, and locally led climate adaptation strategies. Their success depends on adequate financing, strong political will, community engagement, and improved sector integration.

Without a rapid shift away from fossil fuels and a major scale-up of climate adaptation finance, the gap between climate change goals, commitments, and real-world outcomes will continue to widen—placing both people and ecosystems at increasing risk.