The latest climate model predicts more intense droughts. The analysis is from the new climate model known as CMIP6 – the newest generation of climate models that Australian researchers created.
It shows that southwestern Australia and parts of southern Australia will see longer and more intense droughts due to the lack of rainfall that climate change will cause.
It’s not only Australia but many important agricultural and forested regions in the Amazon, Mediterranean and southern Africa will have the same fate.
Future drought is linked to the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere said the lead author, Dr Ann Ukkola.
Earlier research of drought only looked at changes in average rainfall to determine how droughts will alter with global warming. With climate change, rainfall will become increasingly variable.
Analysis of the new climate model show that the duration of droughts is closely linked to changes in the average rainfall, and the intensity of droughts is connected to the combination of average rainfall and variability. Combining the measures in rain variability and mean rainfall, researchers can give a clearer picture of how droughts would change for some regions.
Interestingly, researchers were not able to locate any regions that will have a reduction in future drought intensity. Even with increases in rainfall, such as in central Europe, can still expect future severe droughts.
The implication from the research is clear; the more we will act on reducing emissions, the less impact intense drought will have on our economy and suffering in the future.
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