What’s Fueling Brazil’s Worst Fire Season in a Decade?

Scientists globally agree that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events – record-breaking heat waves on land and in the ocean, drenching rains, severe floods, years-long droughts, extreme wildfires, and widespread flooding during hurricanes are all becoming more frequent and will continue to worsen in the future.

According to the “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘s Sixth Assessment Report“, released in 2021, the human-caused rise in GHG emissions has caused a global temperature rise of 1.1°C, which has spurred unprecedented changes to the Earth’s climate in recent human history and increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

The evidence of global warming unfolding includes – a concentration of carbon dioxide unmatched for at least 2 million years, unprecedented glacial retreat in over 2000+ years, the last decade has been warmer than any other period in 125,000 years, sea level rise is faster in the previous 3000 years, summer Arctic ice coverage small than any time in the last millennia, faster ocean warming since the end of the last ice age, and ocean acidification at highest level in the previous 26,000 years.

Worst fire season in Brazil in 10 years

Brazil has been suffering its worst droughts in over 70 years. Droughts, persistent heat and shifting rainfall patterns are blamed for the country’s unparalleled fire season in at least a decade.

The Map Biomas initiative report said 22.38 million hectares (55.3 million acres) caught fire in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 150% compared to the same period in 2023. The area is equivalent to 2.6% of Brazil’s total land area.

Over half (51%, or 11.3 million hectares) of the area burned in the first nine months of this year is in the Amazon. The data is from the most recent Map Biomas Fire Monitor survey, released on 11 October 2024.

“The dry season in the Amazon, which usually runs from June to October, has been particularly severe this year, further aggravating the fire crisis in the region – a reflection of the intensification of climate change, which plays a crucial role in the spread of fires. This is reflected in the figures for September, where half of the area burned in the region was in forest formations,” says Ane Alencar, IPAM’s Science Director and coordinator of Map Biomas Fogo. 

September has been the peak of this year’s fires in Brazil. The area burned jumped to 90% from August’s 5.65 million hectares to 10.65 million hectares in September this year. Compared with September 2023, this year is 181% greater or 6.8 million additional hectares burned.

Read the Map Biomas report.

Climate change or arson?

Environmental organisations such as WWF and Greenpeace believe drought contributes to spreading fires but doesn’t necessarily cause it. Reuters reports that while firefighters have been successful in reducing the extent of a massive wildfire that has raged for two days and destroyed 20% of a forest in Brazil’s capital, officials suspect that arsonists caused the fire. Fabio dos Santos Miranda, who manages the forest, says, “We are sure this was an environmental crime, but we haven’t confirmed if it was intentional or not,” he said in an interview, adding that three suspected arsonists were seen in the area where the fire started (Rocandio, 2024).

According to the federal government, 85 police inquiries have been established, and investigations point to environmental crime in some regions (Alhames, 2024).

Worst air quality

Smoke from the wildfires has given Brazil the worst air quality in the world in early September. São Paulo with a score of 160 from the Swiss website IQAir. The website shows that between the scale of 0-50 means the air quality is good, but between 151-200, it is considered unhealthy.

According to the website, it topped the ranking among 120 big cities with the worst air quality in the world and recorded poor air quality in several regions.

Amazon’s Indigenous people most vulnerable to the wildfires

The BBC reports that many of these fires in the Amazon are encroaching on Indigenous lands either by accident or ignited deliberately by those who want to steal land.

The article notes that scientists, the Federal Police, and the government believe that most fires in the Amazon are started by humans illegally: loggers and miners looking to exploit land in the Amazon or farmers turning it into pasture.

Raimundinha Rodrigues Da Sousa, who runs the voluntary fire service for the Caititu indigenous community in the Brazilian Amazon, says that when her brigade arrives at a fire scene, they often find bottles of gasoline and matches.  

The world relies on the Amazon to absorb much of its carbon; however, these fires mean it is now emitting record amounts.

Mixed signals on the climate

According to the WRI, although the present government under President Lula made some excellent progress on the climate agenda compared to the previous government under President Jair Bolsonaro, the present administration needs to increase the budgets of its climate and environmental agencies to meet the current environmental challenges effectively. The plan to expand oil exploration in the area just 500 kilometres from the mouth of the Amazon River is also being scrutinised when the government needs to decarbonise its economy.

The article notes that Brazil is now updating its climate pledges through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Thus, Brazil can increase its emissions reduction targets to 2030 and 2035 and be on track to hit net zero by 2050. Additionally, incorporating climate adaptation into its economic and social development strategies will bolster the country’s climate change resilience.